(NewsNation) — It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election, and both candidates now have just a few pathways to get there.
Across the seven swing states, former President Donald Trump has already taken Georgia and North Carolina, which means the Sunbelt could be key to a Republican victory.
Pennsylvania is now a “must-win” for Vice President Kamala Harris, according to NewsNation’s Connell McShane. The state is still too early to call and will likely take time to deliver results.
Harris could get to 270 by winning the so-called “blue wall” — specifically, the three northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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NewsNation’s election partner, Decision Desk HQ, shows Trump with a 54% chance of winning and Harris with a 46% chance as of Tuesday night at 11:34p.m. EST.
Here are three possible paths to victory on Election Day:
Trump: The Sunbelt path to victory
Swing state breakdown:
- Trump wins: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
- Harris wins: Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin
Electoral votes:
- Trump: 281 ✔
- Harris: 257
How likely is it?
This is Trump’s most likely path to victory. The former president is currently favored in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — three states that have tended to vote Republican since the 1980s. If Trump wins those,
This is Trump’s most likely path to victory. The former president is the projected winner in Georgia and North Carolina and favored in Arizona — three states that have tended to vote Republican since the 1980s. If Trump wins all of these, he would only have to take one of the blue wall states — either Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin — to get to 270.
Historically, Republicans have done well in Georgia and North Carolina, particularly among higher-income white voters, but the winning formula could look different this time.
Harris: The blue wall holds
Swing state breakdown:
- Harris wins: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
- Trump wins: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina
Electoral votes:
- Harris: 270 ✔
- Trump: 268
How likely is it?
For Harris, the clearest path to 270 is winning the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The three were reliably Democratic until Trump turned them red in 2016.
Four years later, Joe Biden flipped these states back, a sign Trump’s win may have been an anomaly rather than the new norm.
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Results are still pouring in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
With Trump already gaining North Carolina and Georgia, this is one of the few roads the Vice President has left.
Trump: A crack in the blue wall
Swing state breakdown:
- Trump wins: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin
- Harris wins: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania
Electoral votes:
- Trump: 272 ✔
- Harris: 266
How likely is it?
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the top battleground prize, but if Trump wins in Arizona, Georgia after winning in North Carolina he can afford to lose the Keystone State by winning Wisconsin.
In other words, it doesn’t matter which northern battleground state he flips so long as he wins across the Sunbelt.
A solid performance in the Milwaukee suburbs, the so-called WOW counties — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — could be all Trump needs to win Wisconsin. Those areas have remained more Republican than similar Midwestern suburbs but still moved leftwards in the Trump Era.