A panel of international scientists has moved their symbolic “Doomsday Clock” closer to midnight than ever before, citing Russian nuclear threats amid its invasion of Ukraine, tensions in other world hot spots, military applications of artificial intelligence and the climate crisis as factors underlying the risks of global catastrophe.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the clock to 89 seconds before midnight – the theoretical point of annihilation. That is one second closer than it was set last year. The Chicago-based nonprofit created the clock in 1947 during the cold war tensions that followed the second world war to warn the public about how close humankind was to destroying the world.
“The factors shaping this year’s decision – nuclear risk, climate change, the potential misuse of advances in biological science and a variety of other emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence – were not new in 2024. But we have seen insufficient progress in addressing the key challenges, and in many cases this is leading to increasingly negative and worrisome effects,” said Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board.
“Setting the Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight is a warning to all world leaders,” Holz added.
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine launched Europe’s bloodiest conflict since the second world war.
“The war in Ukraine continues to loom as a large source of nuclear risk. That conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons at any moment due to a rash decision or through accident and miscalculation,” Holz said.
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in November lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, a move the Kremlin described as a signal to the west amid a war in which Ukraine has received arms supplied by the United States and its allies. Russia’s updated doctrine set a framework for conditions under which Putin could order a strike from the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal.
Russia said in October that it will not discuss signing a new treaty with the United States to replace the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty limiting each side’s strategic nuclear weapons that expires in 2026 because Moscow believes it needs to be broadened and expanded to cover other countries.
The Middle East has been another source of instability with the Israel-Gaza war and broader regional hostilities involving countries including Iran. Nuclear-armed China has stepped up military pressure near Taiwan, sending warships and planes into the waters and air space around the island that Beijing views as its own territory. Nuclear-armed North Korea continues with tests of various ballistic missiles.
“We are watching closely and hope that the ceasefire in Gaza will hold. Tensions in the Middle East including with Iran are still dangerously unstable,” Holz said. “There are other potential hot spots around the world, including Taiwan and North Korea. Any of these could turn into a conflagration involving nuclear powers, with unpredictable and potentially devastating outcomes.“
Last year was the hottest in recorded history, according to scientists at the UN World Meteorological Organization. The last 10 years were the 10 hottest on record, it said.
“While there has been impressive growth in wind and solar energy, the world is still falling short of what is necessary to prevent the worse aspects of climate change,” Holz said.