Russian forces are intensifying their offensive around the strategically vital Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, threatening key supply lines and raising concerns about a potential encirclement.
The city, a crucial logistical hub in eastern Ukraine, has become a focal point in the nearly three-year-long conflict.
While Ukrainian defenders are fiercely resisting the Russian advance, the situation in Pokrovsk grows increasingly precarious. The city’s main supply routes are under constant threat, with Russian troops encroaching from multiple directions.
Should Pokrovsk fall, it could significantly bolster Russia’s offensive capabilities in the east, potentially opening avenues for attacks in several directions and increasing pressure on Kyiv.
Life for the remaining residents of Pokrovsk is grim. Once a bustling city of 60,000, Pokrovsk’s population has dwindled to a mere 7,000, according to the regional governor. The closure of the last post office, with mail now delivered by armored truck, underscores the city’s isolation and the dangers faced by its inhabitants.
The crucial east-west highway that runs through Pokrovsk is now within range of Russian artillery and drone fire, forcing most vehicles to abandon the main road and navigate treacherous backroads for safety.
Adding to the city’s vulnerability, Russian forces have recently reached the main rail line connecting Pokrovsk to the strategically important logistical hub of Dnipro, further restricting supply lines and increasing the risk of encirclement. This development marks a critical juncture in the war, with the fate of Pokrovsk hanging in the balance.
“The situation is generally difficult, the enemy is constantly attacking on foot,” said the deputy commander of Ukraine’s 59th assault brigade, which is fighting on the Pokrovsk front.
He asked to be identified by his military call sign, Phoenix, for security reasons.
The officer said the enemy had much greater numbers of infantry, attacked in small groups willing to take extremely high casualties and adeptly exploited the landscape and low-visibility weather conditions to hide themselves from drones.
“Day and night they are moving forwards,” Phoenix said.
Pokrovsk’s road and rail connections have made it an important supply centre for a large section of Ukraine’s frontline, although in recent months the threat of Russian artillery and drones has limited that function.
A map of Pokrovsk:
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said Pokrovsk’s transit routes meant that if it fell, Russian forces could use it as a staging ground to push north or west.
“It sets up Russian forces for a potential advance into Dnipropetrovsk region … further behind the frontlines, they’re building and repairing rail lines.”
“They can then move up their own logistics and that enables them to push further west.”
Dnipropetrovsk region is a large province whose eastern tip faces Pokrovsk, and Russian troops are currently about 5 km (3 miles) from its boundary. It is not one of the four Ukrainian regions claimed by Russia. With U.S. President Donald Trump pressing the sides to reach a peace deal, Moscow’s occupation of a part of this region could strengthen its hand in future negotiations.
Why does Russia want Pokrovsk?
Moscow says it has annexed Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region and sees taking control of Pokrovsk as an important stepping stone to incorporating the entire region into Russia. Kyiv and the West reject Russia’s territorial claims as illegal and accuse Moscow of prosecuting a war of colonial conquest.
Control of the city, which the Russian media call “the gateway to Donetsk”, would allow Moscow to severely disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front and boost its campaign to capture Chasiv Yar, which sits on higher ground offering potential control of a wider area.
Squeezing the Ukrainian military’s access to the road network in the vicinity would make it harder for Kyiv’s troops to hold pockets of territory either side of Pokrovsk, which could allow Russia to advance the front line. Russian forces, according to open source data, have begun to encircle the city in a pincer movement from the southeast and southwest.
Viktor Trehubov, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said the Russians were attempting to bypass and surround Pokrovsk from the west.
He said this differed from their approach to taking previous big urban areas, where they opted for costly frontal assaults and street fighting.
“It seems that, perhaps for the first time, they have started to spare their manpower,” he said.
Ukraine updates
Latest from the war as of January 31 9am GMT
- Ukraine launched drone attacks on oil refineries within Russia, causing a fire at a refinery in the Volgograd region. One worker was injured.
- Russia claims to have downed numerous Ukrainian drones targeting various regions, including Rostov, Volgograd, Kursk, and others.
- A British man captured fighting for Ukraine in Russia faces terrorism and mercenary charges.
- Russian forces are concentrating attacks around Pokrovsk, a strategically important city in eastern Ukraine.
- A Russian drone attack on an apartment building in Sumy, Ukraine, killed four people and injured nine others, including a child.
- Follow latest updates.
Three analysts Reuters spoke to said that should it capture the city, Russia had two main options for advancing on the Pokrovsk axis of battle.
The first was to push westward into the sparsely populated plains of Dnipropetrovsk region, which are lightly fortified and offer few natural or urban obstacles for Kyiv to use in defence.
The second was to push north, into a denser patchwork of industrial towns that would be tougher to get through but would enable Moscow to put pressure on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the eastern region of Donetsk.
A map of Kramatorsk:
On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy put one of Ukraine’s most senior generals, land forces chief Mykhailo Drapatyi, in charge of the strategic command that oversees a vast chunk of frontline including Pokrovsk.
“He’s a well-respected commander and his appointment might lead to improved command and control and coordination between units on the frontline, which has remained a challenge for Ukraine over the past year,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Russia’s assaults on the Pokrovsk front are largely conducted by small groups of infantry that use villages and treelines to dig in, said military spokesman Trehubov.
Phoenix, the deputy brigade commander, said the Russians had recently started using a new tactic – sending three- or four-man infantry squads deep into enemy territory to ambush Ukrainian soldiers and vehicles with the help of anti-tank mines.
However, he added that overall the assaults had become slightly less intense over the past month, and that Russia was firing less artillery than six months ago.
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said Ukraine struggled to beat back Russia’s small infantry assaults because it lacked sufficient manpower of its own to comprehensively cover the front lines. Kyiv has faced long-running recruitment and mobilisation issues, and last year there was a rise in soldiers deserting and absconding from a depleted, tired force.
“Ukrainian units are simply running out of infantry,” Paroinen said.
Why does Russia want Pokrovsk?
Moscow says it has annexed Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region and sees taking control of Pokrovsk as an important stepping stone to incorporating the entire region into Russia. Kyiv and the West reject Russia’s territorial claims as illegal and accuse Moscow of prosecuting a war of colonial conquest.
Control of the city, which the Russian media call “the gateway to Donetsk”, would allow Moscow to severely disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front and boost its campaign to capture Chasiv Yar, which sits on higher ground offering potential control of a wider area.
Squeezing the Ukrainian military’s access to the road network in the vicinity would make it harder for Kyiv’s troops to hold pockets of territory either side of Pokrovsk, which could allow Russia to advance the front line. Russian forces, according to open source data, have begun to encircle the city in a pincer movement from the southeast and southwest.