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The CIA now believes the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released Saturday that points the finger at China even while acknowledging that the spy agency has “low confidence” in its own conclusion.
The finding is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of President Trump’s pick to lead the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director.
“CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting. CIA continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” a spokesperson for the agency said in a statement, noting they “will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment.”
Jake Sullivan, the Biden administration national security adviser, ordered a classified review in December of U.S. intelligence that had been gathered on the origins of COVID-19, one current and one former U.S. official confirmed to CBS News. Sullivan convened a panel of outside experts to assess the intelligence and asked the intelligence community to review its data and form a conclusion. Both officials told CBS News there was no new “smoking gun,” but rather a low-confidence assessment based on the same data. Burns ordered the review before leaving the CIA, citing high policymaker interest.
The nuanced finding suggests the agency believes the totality of evidence makes a lab origin more likely than a natural origin. But the agency’s assessment assigns a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, suggesting the evidence is deficient, inconclusive or contradictory.
Earlier reports on the origins of COVID-19 have split over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is not likely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say it may never be resolved, due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.
Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh analyses of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific properties and the work and conditions of China’s virology labs.
Read more via CBS News