While most of the nation were enjoying the late August sunshine and the news that Oasis are getting back together, it seemed an odd moment for Keir Starmer to bring everyone back down to earth with a bump.
But his gloom-laden speech in the Downing Street garden on Tuesday did just that. “I have to be honest with you: things are worse than we ever imagined,” the prime minister told his hand-picked audience.
The finger of blame was again pointed firmly at the Conservatives, whom he accused of leaving behind an economic and societal “black hole”.
“That is why we have to take action and do things differently,” he said. “Part of that is being honest with people – about the choices we face. And how tough this will be. Frankly, things will get worse before they get better.”
Starmer’s message – delivered from a podium emblazoned with the words “Fixing the foundations” – set off a ripple of anxiety among Labour MPs, many of whom have been desperate for the government to offer some hope after their landslide election victory.
“We’ve just won power for the first time in 14 years. Surely that in itself is a reason for optimism?” one remarked after the speech. Another MP said: “If you can’t achieve radical change to improve people’s lives with a majority of 167, then when can you?”
Several cited the contrast with the unbridled enthusiasm on show at the Democrat National Convention in Chicago the week before, where buoyant US presidential candidate Kamala Harris received a rockstar reception.
One senior minister said that the electorate, having put their faith in Labour improving their lot, would expect to see results soon or would punish the party at the ballot box. “We don’t have as long as No 10 thinks. If people aren’t feeling things are better in the next couple of years, that’s a big problem,” they said.
Others were concerned that Starmer’s downbeat approach could depress consumer and business confidence to the extent that it undermines his own strategy for getting the country back on track: economic growth. “The miserablism is completely self-defeating,” warned one MP. “We need to be bigging Britain up. It feels like we’re doing the opposite.”
But Downing Street insiders brushed aside MPs’ jitters. “They need to get over it,” said one source. “The public is sick of boosterism. Boris Johnson overpromising and underdelivering is a big factor in why people have lost faith in politics.”
Keir Starmer warns autumn budget will be ‘painful’ and hints at tax rises – videoAnother senior Labour insider said: “Keir can’t make everything fine just by saying it’s all great. He would rather level with people and explain the trade-offs, not pretend. I don’t agree that he’s unnecessarily gloomy or that he doesn’t ‘do hope’. He’s saying that change is coming, but it’s just going to take time.”
Some inside No 10 acknowledge that Starmer and his ministers need to do a better job of explaining the tough choices to the public.
One figure admits they may even have overdone the gloom in recent days. After the government sent out Pat McFadden last weekend to roll the pitch for Starmer’s speech, they conceded that the Cabinet Office minister, who “could make an undertaker look cheerful”, was perhaps not the best choice.
Starmer’s speech had originally been planned for the week the riots broke out, sources said. It was intended as a follow-up to Rachel Reeves’ own speech to MPs in July, when she emphasised the now familiar “inheritance” narrative.
Downing Street hopes that by the time the budget – with its expected tax rises and Whitehall cuts – bites at the end of October, the public will be prepared for the pain to come. However, aides denied that their carefully honed message was all just expectation management. “Things are going to be really tough,” one said.
Several departments have had to push announcements they had planned for the first few weeks of government into the next fiscal year because they can’t afford them, sources said.
But the two most recognisable figures in his cabinet this week showed some recognition that hope is needed.
Reeves gave what one MP described as a “tub-thumping spiel” on how the economy would improve under Labour in a private meeting during a visit to Scotland. She is also expected to say more about growth in the weeks ahead, reminding people of the steps the government has already taken.
“It’s tough, there’s a lot more to do, but we’ll start seeing the hard work paying off,” one government insider said. “It won’t all be doom and gloom for ever.”
And in the small hours of Thursday morning, Starmer’s deputy, Angela Rayner, was filmed dancing in an DJ booth in Ibiza, drink in hand. All it needed was some Oasis.