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A recent study published in Nature Medicine paints a stark picture for Europe’s future as rising temperatures driven by climate change threaten to drastically increase heat-related deaths, especially in Mediterranean nations like Malta. According to the research, extreme temperatures – primarily heat – could kill as many as 2.3 million people across Europe by 2100 unless significant action is taken to curb carbon emissions and improve climate adaptation measures.
The study, conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, highlights a shifting trend in temperature-related fatalities. While cold temperatures currently claim more lives in Europe than heat, warming climates will reverse this pattern. The research analyzed death rates in 854 cities under various climate scenarios, revealing that as the continent warms, cold-related deaths decrease slightly, but heat-related deaths surge dramatically.
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The Mediterranean region is warming faster than the global average, making Malta a focal point of the crisis. The study projects that Malta’s heat-related death rate could rise by 269 people per 100,000 by the end of the century. This increase significantly outweighs the projected benefits of reduced cold deaths in other, less populated northern regions like Scandinavia and the UK.
“The Mediterranean is a so-called climate hotspot,” said Pierre Masselot, the study’s lead author. “It’s a region that is warming much quicker than the rest of the world. And Malta is right in the middle of it.”
Impacts Across Europe
The study paints a grim picture for southern Europe, where densely populated cities near the Mediterranean will face some of the highest death tolls. Cities like Barcelona, Rome, and Naples could see hundreds of thousands of excess deaths from extreme heat. By contrast, cooler regions in northern Europe, such as Ireland, are projected to experience slight declines in temperature-related deaths.
Wealthier nations in western Europe may fare better than their eastern counterparts, owing to better infrastructure and resources. However, even with sharp reductions in carbon emissions and substantial investments in adaptive measures such as air conditioning, green spaces, and cooling centers, the study predicts a net increase in heat-related deaths.
Malta’s aging population and older housing stock, which often lack air conditioning, amplify its vulnerability to rising temperatures. Emergency room physician Dr. Courtney Howard emphasized the risks, stating, “When temperatures in cities like Rome reach the 40s (104–122°F), heat stress and heat stroke become life-threatening, particularly for older adults and those without adequate cooling systems.”
To mitigate the deadly impacts of heatwaves, experts stress the urgent need for widespread adaptation measures, including improved urban planning, expanded cooling infrastructure, and increased public awareness.
A Call to Action
This study serves as a wake-up call for policymakers across Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean region. Without immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the realities of a warming world, millions of lives, including those in Malta, hang in the balance.
Europe’s aging population further underscores the urgency, as older individuals are especially vulnerable to heat-related illnesses. For Malta and its Mediterranean neighbors, addressing these challenges head-on will be critical to protecting future generations.
Masselot and his team have also developed an interactive website allowing users to explore the data and projections for specific cities and regions, providing a valuable tool for public and governmental planning.
As the climate crisis deepens, the choices made today will determine the survival and safety of millions in the decades to come.
source: AP/ Nature Medicine