A political disaster such as what occurred Tuesday gains significance not simply by virtue of who won or lost, but by how the election is interpreted.
This is known as The Lesson of the election.
The Lesson explains what happened and why. It deciphers the public’s mood, values and thoughts. It attributes credit and blame.
And therein lies its power. When the Lesson of the election becomes accepted wisdom — when most of the politicians, pundits and politicians come to believe it — it shapes the future. It determines how parties, candidates, political operatives and journalists approach future elections.
There are many reasons for what occurred on Tuesday and for what the outcome should teach America — about where the nation is, and about what Democrats should do in the future.
Yet inevitably, one Lesson predominates.
Today, I want to share with you six conventional “lessons” you will hear for Tuesday’s outcome. None is, and none should be considered, The Lesson of the 2024 election.
Then I’ll give you what I consider the real Lesson of the election.
None of these are The Lesson of the 2024 election:
- It was a total repudiation of the Democratic Party, a major realignment. Rubbish. Kamala Harris would have won had there been a small, less than 1 percent vote shift in the three main battleground states. The biggest shift from 2020 and 2016 was among Latino men. We don’t know yet whether Latino men will return to the Democrats; if they don’t, they will contribute to a small realignment. But the fact is America elected Donald Trump in 2016, almost re-elected him in 2020, and elected him again in 2024. We haven’t changed that much, at least in terms of whom we vote for.
- If the Dems want to win in the future, they have to move to the right. They should stop talking about “democracy,” forget “multiculturalism,” and end their focus on women’s rights, transgender rights, immigrant’s rights, voting rights, civil rights; and America’s shameful history of racism and genocide. Instead, push to strengthen families, cut taxes, allow school choice and prayer in public schools, reduce immigration, minimize our obligations abroad, and put America and Americans first. Wrong. Democrats shouldn’t move to the right if that means giving up on democracy, social justice, civil rights and equal voting rights. While Democrats might reconsider their use of “identity” politics (in which people are viewed primarily through the lenses of race, ethnicity or gender), Democrats must not lose the moral ideals at the heart of the party and at the core of America.
- Republicans won because of misinformation and right-wing propaganda. They won over young men because of a vicious alliance between Trump and a vast network of online influencers and podcasts appealing to them. The answer is for Democrats to cultivate an equivalent media ecosystem that rivals what the right has built. Partly true. Misinformation and right-wing propaganda did play a role, particularly in reaching young men. But this hardly means progressives and Democrats should fill the information eco-system with misinformation or left-wing propaganda. Better messaging, yes. Lies and bigotry, no. We should use our power as consumers to boycott X and all advertisers on X and on Fox News, mount defamation and other lawsuits against platforms that foment hate, and push for regulations (at least at the state level for now) requiring that all platforms achieve minimum standards of moderation and decency.
- Republicans cheated. Trump, Vladimir Putin and election deniers at county and precinct levels engaged in a vast conspiracy to suppress votes. I doubt it. Putin tried, but so far there’s no sign that the Kremlin affected any voting process. There is little or no evidence of widespread cheating by Republicans. Dems should not feed further conspiracy theories about fraudulent voting or tallying. For the most part, the system worked smoothly, and we owe a huge debt of gratitude to election workers and state officials in charge of the process.
- Harris ran a lousy campaign. She wasn’t a good communicator. She fudged and shifted her positions on issues. She was weighed down by Joe Biden and didn’t sufficiently separate herself from him. Untrue. Harris ran an excellent campaign, but she had only a little over three months to do it in. She had to introduce herself to the nation (typically a vice president is almost invisible within an administration) at the same time Trump’s antics sucked most of the oxygen out of the political air. She could have been clearer about her proposals and policies, but her debate with Trump was the best debate performance I’ve ever witnessed, and her speeches were pitch-perfect. Biden may have weighed her down a bit, but his decision to step down was gracious and selfless.
- Racism and misogyny. Voters were simply not prepared to elect a Black female president. Partly true. Surely racism and misogyny played a role, but bigotry can’t offer a full explanation.
Here’s the real Lesson of the 2024 election:
On Tuesday, according to exit polls, Americans voted mainly on the economy — and their votes reflected their class and level of education.
While the economy has improved over the past two years according to standard economic measures, most Americans without college degrees — that’s the majority — have not felt it.
In fact, most Americans without college degrees have not felt much economic improvement for four decades, and their jobs have grown less secure. The real median wage of the bottom 90 percent is stuck nearly where it was in the early 1990s, even though the economy is more than twice as large.
Most of the economy’s gains have gone to the top.
This has caused many Americans to feel frustrated and angry. Trump gave voice to that anger. Harris did not.
Most Americans without college degrees have not felt much economic improvement for four decades.
The basic bargain used to be that if you worked hard and played by the rules, you would do better and your children would do even better than you. But since 1980, that bargain has become a sham. The middle class has shrunk.
Why? While Republicans steadily cut taxes on the wealthy, Democrats abandoned the working class.
Democrats embraced NAFTA and lowered tariffs on Chinese goods. They deregulated finance and allowed Wall Street to become a high-stakes gambling casino. They let big corporations become huge, with enough market power to keep prices (and profit margins) high.
They let corporations bust unions (with negligible penalties) and slash payrolls. They bailed out Wall Street when its gambling addiction threatened to blow up the entire economy — but never bailed out homeowners who lost everything.
They welcomed big money into their campaigns — and delivered quid pro quos that rigged the market in favor of big corporations and the wealthy.
The Republican Party is worse. It says it’s on the side of the working class, but its policies will hurt ordinary workers even more. Trump’s tariffs will drive up prices. His expected retreat from vigorous antitrust enforcement will allow giant corporations to drive up prices further.
If Republicans gain control over the House as well as the Senate, as looks likely, they will extend Trump’s 2017 tax law and add additional tax cuts. As in 2017, these lower taxes will mainly benefit the wealthy and enlarge the national debt, which will give Republicans an excuse to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid — their objectives for decades.
Democrats must no longer do the bidding of big corporations and the wealthy. They must instead focus on winning back the working class. They should demand paid family leave, Medicare for all, free public higher education, stronger unions, higher taxes on great wealth and housing credits that will generate the biggest boom in residential home construction since World War II.
They should also demand that corporations share their profits with their workers. They should call for limits on CEO pay, eliminate all stock buybacks (as was the SEC rule before 1982) and reject corporate welfare (subsidies and tax credit to particular companies and industries unrelated to the common good).
The Democratic Party should use this inflection point to shift ground.
Democrats need to tell Americans why their pay has been lousy for decades and their jobs less secure: not because of immigrants, liberals, people of color, the “deep state,” or any other Trump Republican bogeyman, but because of the power of large corporations and the rich to rig the market and siphon off most of economy’s gains.
In doing this, Democrats need not turn their backs on democracy. Democracy goes hand-in-hand with a fair economy. Only by reducing the power of big money in our politics can America grow the middle class, reward hard work and reaffirm the basic bargain at the heart of our system.
If the Trump Republicans gain control of the House, they will have complete control of the federal government. That means they will own whatever happens to the economy and will be responsible for whatever happens to America. Notwithstanding all their anti-establishment populist rhetoric, they will become the establishment.
The Democratic Party should use this inflection point to shift ground — from being the party of well-off college graduates, big corporations, “never-Tumpers” like Dick Cheney and vacuous “centrism” — to an anti-establishment party ready to shake up the system on behalf of the vast majority of Americans.
This is, and should be The Lesson of the 2024 election.
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