Former President Trump on Sunday overtook Vice President Harris for the first time in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast this cycle.
The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency while Harris has a 42 percent chance, as of Sunday.
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Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s chances at approximately 44 to 46 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.
On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage on Oct. 20.
The shift in election forecast coincides with the Republican candidate’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Of the seven swing states seen as decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is alone in still favoring Harris in its polling average.
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Nonetheless, the race remains a toss-up, according to the election forecast, since the polling in all seven states remains within the margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the results in either direction.
These states are expected to be decisive in determining which candidate reaches the crucial 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in enough states to secure that number.