What is a ‘red mirage’? Is it happening now?

(NewsNation) — Quick ballot counts could cause Election Day mirages, and they may not be good indicators of the candidate who will win.

An Election Day “red” or “blue mirage” is when a candidate leads early after the polls close until other methods of votes are counted.

NewsNation’s political editor, Chris Stirewalt, says what appears to be shifts in voting patterns through election night is actually just a predictable pattern based on how different areas count their votes.

“It doesn’t matter which piece you put in, first or last in a puzzle. It doesn’t change the picture. The image remains the same,” Stirewalt said.

It’s important to wait until all ballots are counted because the swing states tend to sway both ways throughout the day.

Is the ‘red mirage’ happening now?

Former President Donald Trump had an early lead right after polls started closing on the East Coast with wins in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. The votes in the crucial state of Pennsylvania are still being counted to determine a winner.

The “red mirage” phenomenon is an expectation that Republican voters are more likely to cast their ballots in person, whereas Democrats are more likely to vote by mail. That dynamic can result in GOP candidates seeing an early lead that later fades as mail-in ballots are counted.

While the “red mirage” is creating confidence among Republican supporters, NewsNation political analysts discuss how Vice President Kamala Harris is trending well in Michigan, Wisconsin and possibly Pennsylvania, which could swing the momentum back toward the Democrats.

Pennsylvania doesn’t require counties to report their mail-in votes first, and they aren’t allowed to start processing those votes until Election Day.

“We are in for a car crash tonight because it’s close,” Stirewalt said, suggesting that both parties will have moments of optimism and anxiety as various regions report their results through the night.

Rural areas count their votes faster since they have fewer ballots to process, less crowded precincts and shorter lines. “The Hill Sunday” host described how vote counting moves from “outside in,” starting with rural areas, then moving through suburbs and finally reaching dense urban centers.

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“The less populous parts of the country count faster because the precincts aren’t as crowded,” Stirewalt said. “There aren’t as many ballots to count in individual places, and the lines aren’t as long in all of these places.”

In Virginia, despite Trump leading in raw vote totals, the remaining votes are from Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Henrico counties.

‘Red mirage’ during the 2020 election

Stirewalt, who is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, explained that in 2020, the red mirage was amplified due to the high number of Democratic voters using mail-in and early voting, which skewed early results in favor of Republicans.

This election’s core battleground remains in the upper Midwest states along what Stirewalt calls “the I-70 corridor” into Michigan and Wisconsin. While noting that Trump is performing better in key areas than in 2020, the political editor indicated current numbers suggest performance below 2016 levels.